EIA: World Net Power Generation to Grow 87% by 2035
Renewables will be the fastest-growing source of energy throughout the world over the next 28 years, helping to meet a projected 49% increase in world energy use, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). But, the agency also found in its International Energy Outlook 2010 released on Tuesday that fossil fuels could meet more than three-fourths of total energy needs in 2035, if current policies remain unchanged.
According to the report, world net electricity generation will increase by 87%, from 18.8 trillion kwh in 2007 to 35.2 trillion kwh in 2035. Renewables will increase the fastest, growing by 3% per year in the reference case, followed by coal-fired generation, which was forecast to increase by 2.3% per year.
The reference case, sometimes referred to as the "business-as-usual" case, also forecasts continued rapid growth in energy use in developing countries through 2035. China and India accounted for 20% of global energy use in 2007, but the EIA expects their consumption to more than double by 2035, at which time they will account for 30% of world energy use. In contrast, the projected U.S. share of world energy consumption falls from 21% in 2007 to about 16% in 2035.
The report finds that the global economic recession that began in 2007 and continued into 2009 has had a profound impact on near-term prospects for world energy demand. Total marketed energy consumption contracted by 1.2% in 2008 and by an estimated 2.2% in 2009, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services declined.
Other report highlights include:
- From 2007 to 2035, total world energy consumption rises by an average annual 1.4 % in the IEO2010 Reference case. Strong economic growth among the non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) nations drives the increase. Non-OECD energy use increases by 2.2 % per year; in the OECD countries energy use grows by only 0.5 % per year.
- World natural gas consumption increases 1.3 % per year, from 108 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 156 trillion cubic feet in 2035. Tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane supplies increase substantially in the IEO2010 Reference case—especially from the U.S., but also from Canada and China.
- Petroleum and other liquid fuels remain the largest energy source worldwide through 2035, though projected higher oil prices erode their share of total energy use from 35 % in 2007 to 30 % in 2035.
- In the absence of additional national policies and/or binding international agreements that would limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, world coal consumption is projected to increase from 132 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 206 quadrillion Btu in 2035, at an average annual rate of 1.6 %. China alone accounts for 78 % of the total net increase in world coal use from 2007 to 2035.
- In the IEO2010 Reference case, world industrial energy consumption grows 66%, from 184 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 262 quadrillion Btu in 2035. The non-OECD economies account for about 95 % of the world increase in industrial sector energy consumption in the Reference case.
- Almost 20 % of the world’s total delivered energy is used for transportation, most of it in the form of liquid fuels. The transportation share of world total liquids consumption increases from 53 % in 2007 to 61 % in 2035 in the IEO2010 Reference case, accounting for 87 % of the total increase in world liquids consumption.
- In the IEO2010 Reference case, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise from 29.7 billion metric tons in 2007 to 42.4 billion metric tons in 2035—an increase of 43 %. Much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing nations of the world, especially in Asia.
Sources: POWERnews, EIA